The Investor's Guide to Real Estate

Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expectations

"The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina points to positive expectations of inflation trends for 2024 and 2025, and it is considered that a further drop in inflation will affect the improvement of the economic situation.

The expected aggregated inflation for the year that began is 5.8%, which implies a slight decline compared to 2023, when survey participants, according to the September survey, predicted an average inflation of 7.9%.

Inflation expectations in the first round for 2025 amount to 5.5%, which leads to the conclusion that a further drop in inflation is expected, given that inflationary pressures in the past year were far above the multi-year average.

Inflation as a basic determinant of decision-making.

It is evident, states the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that inflation trends are influenced by internal and external factors, which results in differences in expected inflation, not only in the country itself, but also between countries in general.

Inflation as a macroeconomic indicator continues to represent the basic determinant of decision-making by consumers, financial institutions, the state and other participants in the macroeconomic system.

In this regard, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as an important segment of the communication strategy, regularly conducts a survey on inflationary expectations, with the aim of analyzing and continuously monitoring the inflationary expectations of economic entities. The survey participants are representatives of the financial sector, commercial banks and insurance companies."

Sources:

IMF (2024),

Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (2024),

The World Bank (2024),

Centralna Banka BiH (2024),

Agencija za statistiku BiH (2024)

Money value calulation

2024.2025.2026.2027.
Money value0000
Bank savings0000
Real Estate Investment value0000
{ "2024": { "1": 1.0092, "2": 1.0092, "3": 1.0092, "4": 1.0092, "5": 1.0092, "6": 1.0092, "7": 1.0092, "8": 1.0092, "9": 1.0092, "10": 1.0092, "11": 1.0092, "12": 1.0092, "total": 1.1099 }, "2025": { "1": 1.0081, "2": 1.0081, "3": 1.0081, "4": 1.0081, "5": 1.0081, "6": 1.0081, "7": 1.0081, "8": 1.0081, "9": 1.0081, "10": 1.0081, "11": 1.0081, "12": 1.0081, "total": 1.0969 }, "2026": { "1": 1.0146, "2": 1.0146, "3": 1.0146, "4": 1.0146, "5": 1.0146, "6": 1.0146, "7": 1.0146, "8": 1.0146, "9": 1.0146, "10": 1.0146, "11": 1.0146, "12": 1.0146, "total": 1.1751 }, "2027": { "1": 1.0192, "2": 1.0192, "3": 1.0192, "4": 1.0192, "5": 1.0192, "6": 1.0192, "7": 1.0192, "8": 1.0192, "9": 1.0192, "10": 1.0192, "11": 1.0192, "12": 1.0192, "total": 1.2301 } }

Inflation

As is already known, the highest inflation was recorded in 2022. In accordance with official data and economic trends, it is predicted that in the coming period, inflation in BiH will have a slight decline on an annual basis.

Year Inflation
2010 2.12%
2011 3.99%
2012 2.05%
2013 -0.09%
2014 -0.90%
2015 -1.02%
2016 -1.58%
2017 0.81%
2018 1.42%
2019 0.56%
2020 -1.05%
2021 2.00%
2022 14.04%
2023 5.49%
2024 2.99%
2025 2.69%
2026 2.51%
2027 2.01%

Sources:

Centralna Banka BiH (2024) Godišnji Bilten, www.cbba.ba

Agencija za statistiku BiH (2024) Generalni indikatori, www.bhas.gov.ba

Import/Export

BiH has been recording a significant increase in the deficit in the turnover of goods and services for a number of years, and it is predicted that these parameters will not change significantly in the coming period.

in 000. Export Import
2020 Q1 1,478,939 2,134,226
Q2 1,746,383 2,388,525
Q3 1,914,354 2,530,846
Q4 1,664,140 2,366,714
2021 Q1 1,486,256 2,195,658
Q2 1,823,839 2,490,150
Q3 1,888,105 2,478,485
Q4 1,635,774 2,378,725
2022 Q1 1,448,363 2,094,580
Q2 1,226,836 1,804,528
Q3 1,468,415 2,121,734
Q4 1,589,640 2,223,816
2023 Q1 1,640,125 2,132,522
Q2 1,903,639 2,512,229
Q3 2,255,459 2,817,018
Q4 2,361,262 3,010,801

Currency: EUR

Values: in .000

Sources:

Centralna Banka BiH (2024) Godišnji Bilten, www.cbba.ba

Agencija za statistiku BiH (2024) Generalni indikatori, www.bhas.gov.ba

GDP

The stagnation of the gross domestic product, gross investments and consumption of the population has been recorded for many years.

in 000. Consumption Gross Investments GDP
2019 12,326,910 4,188,240 17,191,112
2020 12,607,370 4,454,260 17,665,899
2021 12,198,293 4,081,155 17,109,124
2022 12,943,358 4,259,797 18,322,966

Currency: EUR

Values: in .000

Sources:

Centralna Banka BiH (2024) Godišnji Bilten, www.cbba.ba

Agencija za statistiku BiH (2024) Generalni indikatori, www.bhas.gov.ba

Credit

As a result of its analysis in February 2023, the Standard & Poor's agency confirmed Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereign credit rating "B+ with stable outlook". In July 2022, the agency Moody's Investors Service confirmed Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereign credit rating of "B3 with a stable outlook".

Agency Moody's Investors Service
Rating Date Activity
B3 / stable 22.7.2022. confirmed rating
Agency Standard & Poor's
Rating Date Activity
B+ / stable 4.8.2023. confirmed rating

Sources:

Centralna Banka BiH (2024) Godišnji Bilten, www.cbba.ba

Construction

The price of construction works per m2 in 2022 was slightly lower compared to 2021. Nevertheless, in 2023, an increase in the construction price per m2 was recorded.

Year 2021 2022
Price per m2 - Residential 808 793
Price per m2 - Hotels 1,542 1,031
Price per m2 - Office Buildings 2,444 2,163
Price per m2 - Industrial Buildings 814 1,395

Currency: EUR

Sources:

Federalni zavod za statistiku (2024), https://fzs.ba/

Republički zavod za statistiku (2024), https://www.rzs.rs.ba/

Tourism

Year after year, an increase in overnight stays / tourist arrivals is recorded in BiH. Thus, in 2023, a growth of almost 40% compared to 2022 was recorded.

Tourist overnights
2021 286,555
Hotels 274,973
Resorts 10,416
Camps 1,166
2022 797,639
Hotels 769,816
Resorts 20,148
Camps 7,675
2023 1,185,115
Hotels 1,133,942
Resorts 39,848
Camps 11,325

Currency: EUR

Sources:

Agency for Statistics in BiH (2024)

Interest rates - Savings

We still have very low interest rates on deposits (savings) in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Period Deposits - 1 year Deposits - over 1 year
Q1-2022 0.30% 1.20%
Q2-2022 0.35% 1.10%
Q3-2022 0.48% 1.43%
Q4-2022 0.40% 1.73%
Q1-2023 0.50% 1.70%
Q2-2023 0.62% 1.80%
Q3-2023 0.60% 1.80%
Q4-2023 0.60% 1.75%

Sources:

Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2024)

Interest rates - Loans

Interest rates on loans have been fairly stable over the last period of time.

Period Loans - Fixed Interest Rates Loans - Variable Interest Rates
Q1-2021 3.50% 3.30%
Q2-2021 3.40% 3.30%
Q3-2021 3.45% 3.25%
Q4-2021 2.40% 3.00%
Q1-2022 2.90% 3.00%
Q2-2022 2.70% 3.30%
Q3-2022 3.30% 3.80%
Q4-2022 4.20% 4.25%
Q1-2023 4.30% 4.80%
Q2-2023 4.00% 4.50%
Q3-2023 4.00% 4.50%
Q4-2023 4.00% 4.60%

Sources:

Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2024)