Türkiye’s macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is defined by a combination of resilient growth and a continuing disinflation trend. The latest institutional estimates place 2025 GDP growth broadly in the 3.5% to 4.1% range, while the 2026 outlook points to growth of roughly 3.4% to 4.2%, supported by recovering confidence, solid domestic demand and gradually improving financial conditions.

Inflation remains elevated by international standards, but the broader trajectory is moving downward. The IMF notes that inflation fell to 30.9% in December 2025, while end-2026 inflation is expected at around 23%. The World Bank also points to further disinflation, with inflation projected to decline to around 18% by the end of 2026. This signals a gradual transition toward a more stable macroeconomic environment, even as energy prices and external uncertainty continue to shape the risk outlook.

For investors, Türkiye continues to stand out through the scale of its economy, the depth of its market and its long-term growth potential. Improving policy credibility, recovering confidence and sustained domestic demand reinforce the investment case, while the pace of disinflation and external conditions remain the key variables to watch through 2026.

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